Title Page	3
	Copyright Page	4
	Table of Contents	5
	Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction	6
	Uncertainties of a Regional Terrestrial Biota Full Carbon Account: A Systems Analysis	10
	1 Introduction	10
	2 Basic Definitions	12
	3 Uncertainties of the Regional Full Carbon Account	13
	4 Requirements for the Terrestrial Biota Regional Full Carbon Account	16
	5 Assessing Uncertainties	17
	6 Some Practical Implementations and Results from Case Studies	19
	7 Conclusion	24
	References	25
	National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Understanding Uncertainties versus Potential for Improving Reliability	27
	1 Introduction	27
	2 Methodology: How to Assess the Uncertainty of National Emission Inventories	28
	3 Results	28
	4 Discussion	29
	4.1 Excluding Sources with High Uncertainty	29
	4.2 Covariance and the Definition of Adequate System Boundaries	30
	4.3 Significance of Subjective Interpretation of Uncertainty	31
	4.4 Rigid Accounting as a Method of Assessing Emissions	32
	5 Conclusions	33
	References	33
	Practical Policy Applications of Uncertainty Analysis for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories	35
	1 Introduction	36
	2 Using Uncertainty Estimates to Adjust Inventories	37
	2.1 Two Possible Adjustment Mechanisms	38
	2.2 Characteristics of the Adjustment Factor and Implications for the Uncertainty Analysis	42
	3 Adjustments to Emissions Trading Ratios Based on the Uncertainty of Emissions	45
	3.1 Trading Ratios: Upper Bound Emissions are Unchanged	47
	3.2 Trading Ratios: Probabilities of Exceeding Emissions Commitments are Unchanged	50
	3.3 Characteristics of the Trading Ratio and Uncertainty Analysis	51
	3.3.1 Fulfilling Environmental Goals: The Impacts of Trading on Environmental Quality	52
	3.3.2 Administrative Complexity	54
	3.3.3 Implications for Trading Ratios in Practice	55
	4 Uncertainty Analysis as a Tool for Inventory Improvement	55
	5 Conclusions	57
	References	58
	Modeling Afforestation and the Underlying Uncertainties	59
	1 Introduction	59
	2 Description of the Model and Experiment	60
	2.1 Description of the Model	60
	2.2 Submodel of Available Water in an Ecosystem	61
	2.3 Calibration and Testing of the Model	62
	2.4 Modeling of the Parameter Uncertainties	63
	2.5 Numerical Experiment	63
	3 Results and Discussion	64
	4 Conclusions	65
	References	65
	Spatial GHG Inventory: Analysis of Uncertainty Sources. A Case Study for Ukraine	67
	1 Introduction	67
	2 Basic Approach	68
	2.1 National Level	69
	2.2 Regional Level	69
	2.3 Plot Level	70
	3 A Geoinformation Technology for Distributed GHG Inventories	70
	4 Inventory at the Regional Level: Energy Sector	72
	5 Spatial Analysis of GHG Emissions	73
	6 Results of Spatial Inventory and Uncertainty Reduction	74
	7 Conclusions	77
	References	78
	Prior to Economic Treatment of Emissions and Their Uncertainties Under the Kyoto Protocol: Scientific Uncertainties That Must Be Kept in Mind	79
	1 Introduction	79
	2 Setting the Stage for Working within a Consistent FGA-Uncertainty-Verification Framework	80
	2.1 A Brief Science–Theoretical Discourse: Plausibility, Validation, and Verification	81
	2.2 Accounting Versus Diagnostic and Prognostic Modeling	82
	2.3 Uncertainty Concept	82
	3 Bottom–Up Versus Top–down Accounting: Verification of Emissions	84
	4 Bottom–Up/Top–Down Verification of Emissions and Temporal Detection of Emissions Signals	84
	5 Temporal Detection of Emission Signals	86
	5.1 Detectability Versus Statistical Significance	86
	5.2 No Credibility Without Uncertainty	86
	5.3 Different Techniques–Different Endings	87
	6 Conclusions	92
	References	93
	Processing National CO2 Inventory Emissions Data and their Total Uncertainty Estimates	96
	1 Introduction	96
	2 Notation Used	97
	3 A Nonparametric Method	98
	3.1 Basic Assumptions and Simplifications	98
	3.2 Smoothing and Uncertainty Analysis	98
	3.2.1 Smoothing Splines	98
	3.2.2 Uncertainty Analysis	99
	3.2.3 Application to Real Data	99
	4 Empirical Parametric Models	101
	4.1 Estimation of the Parameter gi	102
	4.2 Piecewise Exponential Model	103
	5 Geometric Brownian Motion	105
	5.1 Geometric Brownian Model for the Emissions	105
	5.2 Arithmetic Brownian Model for the Logarithm of the Emissions	106
	6 Conclusions	108
	References	109
	Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount	111
	1 Introduction	111
	2 Uncertainties in Different Emissions Trading Schemes	113
	3 Materials and Methods	114
	4 Results	116
	5 Discussion and Conclusions	117
	References	119
	Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories	121
	1 Introduction	121
	2 Notation and Problem Formulation	123
	3 The Interval Type of Uncertainty	123
	3.1 Compliance Proving	123
	4 Adjustment of the Basic Committed Level	125
	5 Uncertainties in Emissions Trading	127
	6 Tradable Permits Under Uncertainty	128
	6.1 Compliance with Undershooting	129
	6.2 Compliance with Adjustment of the Commitment Level	129
	6.3 Compliance Proving and Trading Mechanism	130
	7 Simulation of a Carbon Market with Effective Permits	130
	7.1 Database	130
	7.2 No Uncertainty Market	131
	7.3 Market with Uncertainties	131
	7.3.1 Effective Emission Permits	131
	7.3.2 Market with Undershooting	132
	7.3.3 Market with Adjustments	132
	7.4 Simulation Results	132
	7.4.1 Trading with Effective Permits Under Undershooting	132
	7.4.2 Trading with Effective Permits Under Adjustment	134
	8 The Stochastic Type of Uncertainty	134
	8.1 Compliance Proving	134
	8.2 Adjustment of the Basic Committed Level	136
	8.3 Uncertainties in Emissions Trading	136
	9 Conclusions	137
	References	138
	The Impact of Uncertainty on Banking Behavior: Evidence from the US Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Allowance Trading Program	141
	1 Introduction	141
	2 The Sulfur Dioxide Market, Uncertainty, and Banking	143
	3 A Model of Emissions Trading under Uncertainty	146
	4 The Data	147
	5 Estimation and Empirical Findings	149
	5.1 Allowances Banking Behavior	149
	5.2 Uncertainty	149
	5.3 Estimation	149
	5.4 Findings	150
	6 Conclusion	150
	Appendix	151
	References	152
	Tradable Permit Systems: Considering Uncertaintyin Emission Estimates	154
	1 Introduction	154
	2 The Modeling Framework	156
	3 The Data	157
	4 Results of Simulations	157
	5 Conclusions	158
	Appendix	158
	References	159