Editors	3
	Contents	5
	List of Abbreviations	9
	1 Introduction	15
	1.1 Roadmap to the Book	16
	2 A Brief History of Seismic Risk Assessment	19
	2.1 Introduction	19
	2.2 Terminology	20
	2.3 Overview of Seismic Risk Assessment	23
	2.4 A Brief Chronology of Selected Events in Seismic Risk Assessment	25
	2.5 How We Got Here	25
	2.6 Vulnerability	44
	2.7 Special Vulnerability Relations	54
	2.8 Asset Identification and Attributes	58
	2.9 Risk Analysis Methods	61
	2.10 Assessment	64
	2.11 Current Status	67
	2.12 Concluding Remarks	69
	2.13 Acknowledgments	70
	References	71
	Appendix 1. Chronology of Seismic Risk Assessment	78
	Appendix 2. Reports from MIT SDDA (Seismic Design Decision Analysis) Project	92
	Appendix 3. Terminology and Concordance	94
	3 Perspectives on the History of Seismic Risk Assessment	96
	Responses to Scawthorn’s paper “A Brief History of Seismic Risk Assessment”	96
	Introduction	96
	3.1 Lessons Leaned from Current Practice and Future Needs in Regional Loss Estimation	97
	3.2 The Dawn of Earthquake Investigations and Cross- Continent Interactions	102
	3.3 Social Science Perspectives on Seismic Risk Assessment	109
	3.4 Seismic Risk Assessment: History and Strategic Directions	110
	References	112
	4 Strategic Directions in Seismic Modeling: HAZUS® Development and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning	114
	4.1 Introduction	114
	4.2 HAZUS®MH Earthquake Model Overview	115
	4.3 Use of HAZUS®MH to Support Catastrophe Planning	117
	4.4 Use of HAZUS®MH to Link Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Disaster Response	123
	4.5 Utilization of a Web-Based Data Management Portal System	126
	4.6 Conclusions	128
	References	128
	5 Perspectives on Development and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning	130
	Responses to Durham’s paper “Strategic Directions in Seismic Modeling”	130
	Introduction	130
	5.1 Recommended Improvements for HAZUS®MH	131
	5.2 User Dynamics and HAZUS® Development	136
	5.3 Perspectives from a HAZUS® User	140
	5.4 Strategic Directions for HAZUS® and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning	142
	References	145
	6 Loss Estimation Models and Metrics	147
	6.1 Introduction	147
	6.2 Loss Dimensions	148
	6.3 Components of the HAZUS® Loss Estimation Methodology	151
	6.4 Current Limitations	155
	6.5 Loss Calibration Studies	157
	6.6 General Guidelines on the Use of Loss Estimates	162
	6.7 Research Topics	165
	References	166
	Bibliography of Additional HAZUS® Studies	168
	7 Perspectives on Loss Estimation Models and Metrics	182
	Introduction	182
	7.1 Model Validation and Priorities in Loss Metrics	183
	7.2 Additional Considerations in Loss Estimation	186
	7.3 Social and Economic Considerations in Loss Estimation Modeling	190
	7.4 Strategic Directions for Loss Estimation Models and Metrics	192
	References	194
	8 Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty	195
	8.1 Introduction	195
	8.2 Seismic Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants	196
	8.3 Nuclear Power Plant Seismic Design	197
	8.4 Recommendations for Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions	203
	8.5 Importance of Uncertainties	205
	8.6 Summary	207
	References	207
	9 Perspectives on Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty	209
	Responses to McGuire’s paper “Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty”	209
	Introduction	209
	9.1 Perspectives from a Risk Assessment Practitioner	210
	9.2 Seismic Risk Assessment and Mitigation: Current Issues	218
	9.3 On the Importance of Network Considerations in Lifeline Risk Assessment	224
	9.4 Strategic Directions for Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty	232
	References	234
	10 Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	237
	10.1 Introduction	238
	10.2 Structure of Catastrophe Models	239
	10.3 A Comparison of Models	240
	10.4 The Exceedance Probability Curve	243
	10.5 Choice of Seismic Mitigation Strategies	245
	10.6 Cost-Benefit Analysis	247
	10.7 A Mitigation Example Using an Insurance-Based Model	248
	10.8 Consideration of Decision Processes	252
	10.9 Improving the Modeling of Seismic Mitigation Strategies	253
	References	254
	11 Perspectives on Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	256
	Responses to Grossi’s Paper “Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies”	256
	Introduction	256
	11.1 Catastrophe Modeling Paradigm Shift	257
	11.2 A Structural Engineering Perspective on Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	261
	11.3 The Role of Risk Modeling in Mitigation	263
	11.4 Adopting Mitigation	264
	11.5 Strategic Directions for Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies	265
	References	268
	12 Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards	270
	12.1 Introduction	270
	12.2 From Concepts to Representations	272
	12.3 Uncertainty Visualization	278
	12.4 Task-Oriented Visual Mappings	291
	12.5 Hazards Visualization	294
	12.6 Challenges	299
	12.7 Acknowledgments	300
	References	300
	13 Perspectives on Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards	304
	Responses to Pang’s Paper “Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards”	304
	Introduction	304
	13.1 Preferred Data Visualization Techniques May Not Lead to Comprehension and Use of Hazard Information	305
	13.2 Putting Seismic Risk and Uncertainty on the Map	315
	13.3 Keep Representations Simple for Effective Communication	320
	13.4 Strategic Directions for Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards	322
	References	323
	14 Conclusion	328
	Index	331
	List of Contributing Authors	336