Preface	6
	Contents	8
	1 Enterprise Risk Management in Supply Chains	12
	Unexpected Consequences	12
	Supply Chain Risk Frameworks	13
	Cases	15
	Models Applied	16
	Risk Categories Within Supply Chains	16
	Process	18
	Mitigation Strategies	20
	Conclusions	21
	Notes	22
	2 Enterprise Risk Management Process	25
	Risk Matrix	27
	Information System Risk Matrix Application	30
	Conclusions	33
	Appendix: Controls Numbered as in Text	33
	Notes	35
	3 Information Systems Security Risk	36
	Definition	37
	Frameworks	37
	Security Process	39
	Best Practices for Information System Security	40
	Supply Chain IT Risks	41
	Outsourcing	41
	Value Analysis in Information Systems Security	42
	Objective Hierarchy	43
	Overall Objective: Maximize IS Security	43
	SMART Analysis	47
	Conclusion	49
	Notes	50
	4 Enterprise Risk Management in Projects	52
	Project Management Risk	53
	Risk Management Planning	53
	Risk Identification	54
	Qualitative Risk Analysis	55
	Quantitative Risk Analysis	55
	Risk Response Planning	56
	Risk Monitoring and Control	56
	Project Management Tools	56
	Simulation Models of Project Management Risk	58
	Governmental Project	60
	Conclusions	60
	Notes	64
	5 Natural Disaster Risk Management	65
	Emergency Risk Management in China	66
	Natural Disaster and Financial Risk Management	67
	Natural Disaster Risk and Firm Value	70
	Financial Issues	72
	Systematic and Unsystematic Risk	73
	Investment Evaluation	74
	Strategic Investment	74
	Risk Management and Compliance	75
	Conclusions	75
	Notes	76
	6 Disaster Risk Management in China	78
	Chinese Earthquake Disaster Management	78
	Earthquake Response	80
	Chinese Earthquake Response	83
	Database Support	83
	Example Database Support	84
	Data Mining Support	85
	Data Mining Process	85
	Quantitative Model Support	87
	Example Emergency Management Support Systems	88
	RODOS System for Nuclear Remediation	90
	Chinese Catastrophe Bond Modeling	91
	Conclusions	94
	Notes	95
	7 Value-Focused Supply Chain Risk Analysis	98
	Hierarchy Structuring	98
	Hierarchy Development Process	100
	Suggestions for Cases Where Preferential Independence Is Absent	102
	Multiattribute Analysis	102
	The SMART Technique	102
	Plant Siting Decision	104
	Conclusions	107
	Notes	108
	8 Examples of Supply Chain Decisions Trading Off Criteria	109
	Case 1: Blackhurst et al. (2008)	109
	Value Analysis	111
	Case 2: Wu et al. (2006)	111
	Value Analysis	112
	Case 3: Kull and Talluri (2008)	113
	Value Analysis	114
	Case 4: Schoenherr et al. (2008)	115
	Value Analysis	116
	Case 5: Gaudenzi and Borghesi (2006)	117
	Value Analysis	119
	Conclusions	119
	Notes	120
	9 Simulation of Supply Chain Risk	121
	Inventory Systems	121
	Basic Inventory Simulation Model	122
	System Dynamics Modeling of Supply Chains	125
	Pull System	127
	Push System	130
	Monte Carlo Simulation for Analysis	132
	Notes	136
	10 Value at Risk	137
	Definition	137
	The Use of Value at Risk	137
	Historical Simulation	139
	Variance-Covariance Approach	140
	Monte Carlo Simulation of VaR	141
	The Simulation Process	141
	Demonstration of VaR Simulation	142
	Conclusions	146
	Notes	147
	11 Chance Constrained Programming	148
	Chance Constrained Applications	149
	Portfolio Selection	150
	Demonstration of Chance Constrained Programming	151
	Maximize Expected Value of Probabilistic Function	152
	Minimize Variance	153
	Solution Procedure	154
	Maximize Probability of Satisfying Chance Constraint	155
	Real Stock Data	155
	Chance Constrained Model Results	158
	Conclusions	161
	Notes	161
	12 Data Envelopment Analysis in Enterprise Risk Management	163
	Basic Data	163
	Multiple Criteria Models	165
	Scales	166
	Stochastic Mathematical Formulation	166
	DEA Models	171
	Conclusions	172
	Notes	173
	13 Portfolio Selection Under Fuzzy and Stochastic Uncertainty	175
	Fuzzy Random Variables	176
	Expected Value for a Fuzzy Random Variable	176
	The Mean Ranking Method	176
	Hybrid Entropy 14	177
	Possibility Theory	177
	Possibilistic Mean Value and Variance	178
	Mean Variance Portfolio Selection Model with Safety-First	179
	Mean Variance Model and Mean Safety-First Model	179
	Hybrid Entropy Based Portfolio Selection	180
	Return Optimization	180
	Numerical Example	184
	Conclusions	186
	Notes	186
	14 Business Scorecard Analysis to Measure Enterprise Risk Performance	188
	ERM and Balanced Scorecards	188
	Small Business Scorecard Analysis	191
	ERM Performance Measurement	191
	Data	192
	Results and Discussion	193
	Score Distribution	193
	Performance	194
	Conclusions	197
	Notes	197
	References	199
	Index	211